Baker County is experiencing a growing housing shortage as home prices rise faster than incomes and residential construction struggles to keep pace with demand, according to a new report from the Florida Housing Data Project.
The report, produced by the DeVoe L. Moore Center at Florida State University, estimates the county currently faces a cumulative housing deficit of 178 units, reflecting a long-term shift from surplus to shortage over the past two decades.
Baker County’s population has increased from 22,620 residents in 2001 to 28,368 in 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau data cited in the report. While population growth has remained relatively steady, housing construction has fluctuated sharply and, in recent years, declined.
Annual residential permitting peaked at 279 units in 2005 but dropped to just 74 units in 2023. The report notes that most new construction has been single-family homes, while multifamily development has been minimal and inconsistent.
At the same time, housing costs have surged. Median listing prices have increased more than 50% since 2017, reaching about $363,000 in 2024. By comparison, the county’s median household income of $70,833 supports a maximum affordable home price of roughly $254,000 under standard affordability guidelines.
The report found that even households earning 120% of the area median income — about $85,000 — struggle to afford the median-priced home. As a result, homeownership is increasingly out of reach for many residents, particularly low- and moderate-income households.
“Residents making 20% above the median income still struggle to comfortably achieve homeownership,” the report states.
Housing supply trends show the county once had a surplus, peaking at an estimated 258 units in the early 2010s, before shifting into a deficit that worsened through the late 2010s. The shortage has eased slightly in recent years but remains significant.
Both owner-occupied and rental housing are affected. The report estimates a current deficit of 103 owner-occupied units and 75 rental units.
Researchers attribute the shortage to a combination of population growth, limited construction and policy constraints. They recommend several strategies to increase housing supply, including loosening zoning density restrictions, expanding fast-track permitting for smaller developments and encouraging more multifamily construction.
Baker County currently limits most residential zoning to one to two units per acre, a policy the report says constrains supply. While multifamily development is allowed at higher densities, it has been “largely unused” since 2001.
The report concludes that increasing the supply of attainable housing will be essential to stabilizing prices and improving affordability.
“Baker County sits on the cusp of its largest housing shortage in two decades,” the report states. “Reforming restrictive zoning and actively encouraging the use of multi-family permitting are crucial first steps.”
The Florida Housing Data Project report was authored by Research Director Crystal Taylor, Project Manager Parker Ridaught and researcher Kamil Bokina.
“As First Coast Habitat has begun working in Baker County, we’ve heard two messages very consistently,” said Kevin Collison, its vice president of marketing and communications. “One is a deep love for the community’s rural character and a commitment to maintain that as the county grows. The other is bewilderment that housing costs have risen so quickly. Young families that planned to keep their roots in the area now live farther away. Employers have difficulty recruiting and retaining workers. The housing shortage has become a tall economic hurdle.
“Habitat advocates for policies that can eliminate barriers to adequate and affordable housing all over the world. Our perspective as a non-profit housing ministry is different than other developers. We make the same profit building one house that we do building one hundred — zero. Still, we do want to help more people achieve the dream of homeownership. We’ve seen successes when smart policies are adopted and people work together to solve thorny housing problems.
“In order to prosper, Baker County will need more attainable housing options. Most residents want economic growth and prosperity. Yet they may not see how housing is a piece of that puzzle. Wise communities will put those pieces together in their own way, avoiding the whiplash of runaway development and the stagnation that comes by preserving overly restrictive policies.
“We look forward to hearing more about what Baker residents imagine for their future, and how we can help.”
This story was published as part of the Northeast Florida News Collaborative, a coalition of news organizations dedicated to providing news and information in the public interest for a more informed and engaged Northeast Florida. Learn more at neflnews.org.